Current Situation
Understanding the true extent of Covid infections is challenging as fewer people are opting for testing. The Winter Covid infection survey, conducted by the Office for National Statistics and UK Health Security Agency, has concluded. However, there are indications that infection levels are increasing. According to the latest data from UKHSA, Covid hospitalizations in England rose from 2.67 to 3.31 per 100,000 in the week ending 10 June. There has also been a slight increase in Covid intensive care unit admissions and the proportion of positive cases from GP swabs.
Professor Danny Altmann from Imperial College London noted, “It’s harder to gather definitive infection data currently, but there’s consensus that we’re seeing rising breakthrough infections and hospitalizations. This is a continuing concern, especially regarding booster uptake advice for vulnerable individuals.”
Covid Variants in the UK
The Covid virus has evolved through numerous mutations since its initial emergence. Currently, the predominant subvariants in the UK stem from the JN.1 variant, linked to Omicron, and are collectively known as “FLiRTs.” This informal name refers to their specific mutations, including KP.2, KP.3, and JN.1.7.1. Due to fewer Covid swabs being collected, it takes longer to identify and assess the impact of these new variants compared to earlier in the pandemic.
UKHSA reports that these subvariants, including KP.3, do not appear to pose greater danger than other forms of the virus at present.
Causes of the New Wave
The rise in infections may be influenced by waning immunity and the ability of current Covid variants to evade immune responses, although the exact contributions of these factors remain unclear. Professor Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia highlighted that most reported cases are among older or vulnerable individuals, possibly due to declining levels of immunity, particularly among those over 75 years old, where the spring booster uptake was modest.
Hunter also cautioned that younger people are not immune to infection, especially those without prior exposure or vaccination.
Level of Concern
While Covid hospitalizations remain below last winter’s peak and infections are generally less severe than a year ago for most people, there are still reasons for vigilance. Data indicates that in the week ending 14 June, there were 152 deaths involving Covid in England and Wales, with 100 directly attributed to Covid.
Professor Hunter emphasized, “Although Covid infections are milder for most people now, older age groups are still experiencing severe illness. This underscores the importance of the spring booster, particularly for this demographic.”
While the spring booster programme has ended, private vaccinations are available, albeit at a cost. Experts recommend ongoing precautions such as staying home if symptomatic and wearing masks when necessary, especially around vulnerable individuals.
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, advised, “It’s crucial to strike a balance in how we navigate this phase.”
Professor Altmann added, “We’re not facing the same crisis as in 2020, but FLiRT infections can still cause significant illness or have long-term effects, especially for vulnerable individuals. We should not dismiss Covid as trivial or ignore precautionary measures.”
