As the avian flu outbreak evolves, it’s crucial that monitoring, testing, and surveillance continue, especially with significant cuts in funding and restrictions on research by the current U.S. administration. Transparent communication, even when full details aren’t available, is vital to managing this public health concern.
Recent Rise in Human Infections and Animal Impact
While avian flu is not new, human infections have risen sharply, with 69 confirmed cases across 11 states, up from just one case since 2022. A spillover effect is being observed in dairy cattle; what began as an infected herd in March 2024 has now spread to nearly 1,000 herds in 16 states.
Genomic sequencing from late January revealed two types of H5N1 influenza: clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype B3.13, and a more concerning D1.1 variant. The D1.1 variant has been linked to the two most severe human cases of avian flu, one in Vancouver and another in Louisiana, raising alarms about the potential for further spillover and rapid transmission.
Concerns about Reinfection and Short Immunity
There are worries that immunity to avian flu in dairy herds may be short-lived. For instance, herds in Idaho that were infected last spring were reinfected by fall. While the USDA claims that reinfection isn’t the cause, other experts argue that these cases may indeed represent a second round of illness, highlighting the concern that avian flu could circulate indefinitely in dairy farms, potentially evolving into a more severe strain.
Wider Animal Infections and Risks to Domestic Pets
Avian flu has infected a wide range of animals, from zoo animals like cheetahs and tigers to domestic cats and wild birds. Notably, cats are highly susceptible to avian flu, as they share cellular receptors with birds that the virus binds to. To protect pets, it’s crucial to keep them indoors and avoid feeding them raw milk or food, which can be contaminated.
Impact on Poultry Industry and Food Prices
In December and January, 41.4 million domesticated birds in the U.S. were culled due to H5N1, which has caused egg prices to skyrocket. Similar culling has occurred in Canada. The continued spread of avian flu could lead to further price hikes in poultry products, including chicken. Though the U.S. plans to rebuild its stockpile of avian flu vaccines for poultry, many farmers have pushed for a vaccination campaign to avoid repeated culling. However, trade restrictions complicate this, as several countries won’t accept vaccinated poultry due to concerns over transmission risks.
Risk of Reassortment and Human Infection
There is also the concern of reassortment, where seasonal flu and avian flu viruses exchange genetic material and form a new virus that can infect humans more easily. While the overall risk of reassortment is low, continued avian flu outbreaks raise the risk. Ongoing influenza A outbreaks across North America add to the concern, as co-infection with both viruses in humans could create a more dangerous strain.
Positive Developments: Vaccines and Ongoing Trials
The good news is that vaccine candidates for both farm animals and humans are in clinical trials, and vaccine stockpiles are being updated. Currently, human-to-human transmission of avian flu remains low, but exposure to infected animals increases the risk. While there’s no immediate need for panic, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and informed, especially as communication from U.S. health authorities may be lacking.
The situation underscores the importance of continued monitoring and open dialogue to address the risks of avian flu, particularly when potential spillover effects could impact both public health and food security.
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