A new study suggests that global food supply chain emissions could drop by 17% if people shift towards more plant-based diets. The research, led by the University of Groningen with Cardiff University’s support, finds that over half of the world’s population (56.9%) is currently consuming too much, and could reduce global dietary emissions by nearly a third (32.4%) by adopting the plant-forward diet recommended by the EAT-Lancet Commission.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, indicates that adopting such diets could offset a 15.4% rise in emissions from under-consuming populations as they move towards diets that offer both health and environmental benefits. The researchers suggest that incentives like carbon pricing, eco-labeling, and expanding access to lower-emission products, such as vegetarian foods, could drive these dietary changes.
The findings also highlight that wealthy countries typically consume high-emission diets but exhibit lower levels of inequality. In contrast, many poorer countries have diets with lower emissions but face higher inequality.
Policy Recommendations
Yanxian Li, the study’s lead author and a PhD student at the University of Groningen, explained: “Our goal is to explore how changing consumer choices can mitigate food system emissions, rather than enforcing a single diet for everyone.”
Dr. Pan He from Cardiff University, a co-author of the study, emphasized the need for tailored policies. “Countries should adapt food policies to their specific socio-economic contexts to maximize their impact,” he said. “This can be challenging, especially in countries undergoing rapid socio-economic changes, where further research is needed to identify effective measures.”
The study acknowledges that certain regions, such as Mongolia, where traditional diets rely heavily on red meat and dairy, may find diet shifts difficult. However, improving national nutrition education remains crucial.
Addressing Barriers
The researchers found that lower-income populations often choose cheap, calorie-dense foods with lower nutritional value. To address this, they recommend making healthy, nutritious foods more affordable and accessible, especially for those with lower incomes.
Dr. Pan He also highlighted the need to lower the costs associated with sustainable diets. “We must make sustainable dietary options affordable and convenient for everyone. This will require a mix of food supply regulations, dietary education, and innovations in the food industry,” he said.
Impact on Global Food Supply
The study reveals that significant changes would be needed in global food production to meet the increased demand for plant-based foods. Specifically, there would need to be an 81% reduction in red meat supply, a 72% decrease in sugars, a 76% reduction in tubers, and a 50% cut in grains. Conversely, supplies of legumes and nuts would need to increase by 438%, added fats by 62%, and vegetables and fruits by 28%.
Such shifts could lead to price fluctuations in agricultural markets and affect land use, potentially impacting other sectors like biofuel production.
Professor Klaus Hubacek from the University of Groningen, a corresponding author, warned: “While diet shifts require increased food consumption, regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, which have faced stagnant agricultural efficiency, may struggle to produce or afford the necessary food. Enhancing agricultural efficiency through better crop management and higher-yielding varieties, along with reducing trade barriers, is essential.”
The study underscores the need for comprehensive policy measures and increased agricultural efficiency to support a global transition to more sustainable diets.
